Pygmy leaders, myopic judiciary and treacherous media.

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The pygmy leaders, myopic judiciary and treacherous media has literally auctioned the nation. This is BrassTacks Threat Analysis and Security review of last week, which will further explain why we are sending such harsh warning to the leadership. The war is upon us and the rulers are fiddling, mocking and looting as if there is no tomorrow! The time for a most severe punishment is now very very close.

In 1939, in the Second World War, French forces were utterly defeated by the Germans in the first phase of the war. Nearly a million French troops, 36,000 officers and 136 Generals were captured alive as German tanks swept across the forests which the French thought were impassable for tanks. The French mindset was still entrenched in the First World War’s first generation war where armies fought positional wars on defined borders. French military planners had built a strong Maginot line across the French-German border hoping that it would stop the advancing German troops. But the Germans had gone a step ahead, deployed the second generation warfare strategies, using mobile warfare for the first time in modern history and used their tanks to create flanking attacks through Belgium and through the undefended forests north of fortified Maginot line. Result was a disaster for France.

In the 20th century, all armies which did not possess nuclear weapons built their war strategies on the Second Generation warfare mobile doctrine. Those with nuclear weapons took the warfare to the third generation Cold war. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union and end to the first cold war in early 90’s, a new war doctrine was introduced – the 4th generation war – which was primarily a political war in which a target country is destroyed through economic collapse, media and information war, insurgencies and rebellions, sectarian, ethnic and provincial disunity, creating food and social services anarchy and when the country achieves the required levels of anarchy, the foreign forces move in to mop up the failed divided and dysfunctional state, either to occupy it or to dismember it into multiple smaller states. The Soviet Union was broken up into many states after the Afghan war but the real bloody deployment of the 4thGW was in Yugoslavia between 1993 to 1996. Today, the state of Yugoslavia exists no more. Its fifth largest army in the world could not save the country from dismemberment. No country invaded Yugoslavia. Nato simply got involved in the very end to mop up the mess and got the warring sides to sign the Dayton peace accord to formalize the breakup. Yugoslavia army was stunned, shocked and was caught on the wrong foot. It had prepared for the second generation warfare but was destroyed in the attack under the 4th Generation warfare.

Today, there is total rout in the Muslim armies in the greater Middle East. Iraq, Libya and now Syria to name a few. The fact is that the armies of these nations were geared to fight the conventional enemy but the deployed war is 4th GW. Political chaos, economic blockade and meltdown, media war, insurgent and terrorist groups and thus an urban high intensity decentralized war within own borders amongst own cities, against own population!! Result is disaster.

4th Generation war cannot be fought without a strong patriotic government in the centre. The governments of Saddam, Qaddafi and now Assad were hated by their people and were corrupt and incompetent but ruled through sheer terror and threat. The corruption and the stupidity of the rulers allowed the enemies to plant spies, traitors and collaborators within the target states and thus bring about an internal collapse first.

This is exactly the case in Pakistan today. Zardari regime is actually bringing about the collapse of the state and all its organs, making it extremely difficult to for the army to even manage the military aspect of the national defense. 4thGW is primarily is a political war and where armies need all the support of national government, media and the global diplomacy to fight against the insurgents, separatists and terrorists backed by the foreign hostile irregular urban insurgent forces.

Today, hundreds of armed gangs from Free Syria army, Israeli military assets, Kurd rebels, and Iranian guards, Turkish military and local armed groups are involved in the Syrian hell hole and the federal army of Syria is fighting a high intensity war within its own cities, turning them into rubble.

Pakistan army’s existing mindset is still deeply rooted in the conventional and nuclear age doctrines relying on the assumption of fighting an external enemy in regular wars with the nation solidly behind its back. But in reality it is fighting a reactive high intensity war against the military axis of the 4thGW but has no response strategy to the more lethal non-military dimensions which are being controlled by the Zardari regime. The media, economy and the diplomacy is not supporting the army, exposing its back dangerously and bringing about the collapse of the state behind the army lines. Under the circumstances, it is not difficult to predict the outcome of the war in which pak army today finds itself entangled.

In our assessment, Pakistan army has less than 16 weeks to get its act together or else risk a total annihilation of the state just as Syrian army is experiencing now. Why 16 weeks? There are reasons for this assessment.

1. In 16 weeks, NATO plans to mop up the Syrian campaign and thus would be free to focus on Pakistan.

2. In that time period, NATO supplies stuck up in Pakistan would also be released allowing the NATO to deploy them for the Af-Pak military doctrine.

3. The anarchy and chaos within Pakistan is rapidly deteriorating every week and within the next 16 weeks, it is expected to touch the meltdown levels when elections would also be announced and the army would be additionally burdened with the elections duties, making it impossible to release troops for border defense or internal security. Already almost 60% army is deployed in combat roles leaving almost no reserves.

4. By that time, TTP and BLA and the MQM would also be re-supplied, re-equipped and re-armed through the NATO supplies to act as vanguards to the external invasions led by Af-Pak and Indian Cold Start.

Americans do not want to launch an Iraq styled invasion of Pakistan nor want to put their boots on ground to confront the Pak army. That dirty job would be left to the Indians, TTP, BLA and MQM. US only plan to provide air support, intelligence guidance and diplomatic and political pressure. The Memo scandal and the Hussain Haqqani’s role in it has also exposed plans to strike and eliminate the top Pakistan military leadership and the C4I systems of the Pak armed forces.

But Americans do have a keen interest in cutting a strategic land corridor through Baluchistan into Afghanistan. The port of Gawader is of critical interest to the Americans, where Pakistan’s defenses are also weakest.

US and NATO do not want to risk another blockade of their supplies through Pakistan when a Syria styled war begins in the country and Indians as well as the insurgents bog down Pakistan army in a high intensity urban war. During the Musharraf era, Americans have already done an amphibious landing on the Makran cost as a practice run.

With the above background in mind, we can now clearly see the pattern of US strategy and relations with Pakistan.

There are signs to indicate that concern and unrest if growing in the ranks of the armed forces as the noose is being tightened around Pakistan and the army. The state organs are at war with each other and the Supreme Court has also hugely disappointed the Nation. Army leadership is meeting in late night huddles and keeping the agenda secret. It is not difficult to guess what they might be debating.

Meanwhile with the country, the battles between the government and the judiciary and within the political parties continue with shameless audacity while the country continue to slip into more and more anarchy and chaos. The political circus has become a stinking joke with no hope of reform or recovery.
Regard.
Furqan Ali Khan.
30.10.2012
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